Tesla production, order and battery distribution updates

Recently, I have done some combing of Tesla's information, mainly referring to some information from Troy Teslike and the United States.

 

From the current data:

◎ Q4 Tesla's production volume is estimated to be 466165 units, and the production volume for the full year of 2022 is estimated to be 1.396 million units.

◎ Q4 Tesla's delivery is estimated to be 420,000, of which the main delivery places are broken down into the United States and Canada 165,000, China 120,000, Europe 101,000, and other regions 33,000.

◎ In terms of the order pool, there are currently 285,000 in the world, and China's estimate at the end of October is 32,000 (after the price cut, the order volume is increasing).

◎ From the perspective of battery demand distribution: this year's LFP supply, China's batteries have eased the demand in the United States, but the next IRA will change the supply of the US market.

 

◎ Next year, 4680 and 2170 batteries are the main supply in the US market.

 

Looking at Tesla's performance this year, we see that focusing on self-driving technology has not been exchanged for direct order changes, and this order pool is rapidly being consumed in a competitive market. The biggest problem in China is the change in Model 3 data.

 

Figure 1.Tesla's Q4 2022 estimate

Figure 2: Weekly data of Tesla's two vehicles in China

 

Part 1, Order Pool and Delivery Estimates

 

Tesla's global order backlog on Oct. 31 was 285,000 units, down from 299,000 units on Sept. 30, according to Troy's calculations. The decline occurred mainly in the United States, where deliveries were taking place at full speed.

 

Figure 3: Tesla's order pool

 

I understand that in the current state, the goal is to boost December deliveries, and to squeeze orders out quickly in first- and second-tier cities, this task is very difficult. The conventional means insurance + price reduction model, may not achieve the effect, may be in the discussion is a special preferential way, we are more looking forward to this price change.

 

Figure 4: Tesla's price changes

 

Part 2. Battery supply

 

According to Troy's intelligence, South Korea has a free trade agreement with the United States. That means batteries made in South Korea qualify for a $7,500 tax credit. Tesla is likely to import 2170 batteries from South Korea's LG to replace the CATL LFP batteries from China used by Fremont.

 

I understand that the largest automotive customer of CATL is Tesla, nearly 80% of the batteries in China are provided by CATL, exports account for about half, and the demand for power batteries from January to September is 21.6GWh.

 

◎ Domestic insurance 262,000 units, 15.75GWh

◎Exports of 104,000 units, 5.89GWh

 

Of course, LFP batteries exported to the United States are not in this statistical caliber. In other words, CATL has allowed Tesla to achieve a certain degree of lower prices and sufficient supply in 2022. Under the constraints of IRA, Tesla's preferred strategy is to supply batteries to the United States from South Korea; Shipping Chinese batteries to Europe for use, that is to say, before there were no regulations in Europe, the United States only used cylindrical batteries (2170+4680), and adopted a procurement price comparison strategy in China and Europe.

 

Figure 5: Tesla's battery supply

 

From the current situation, the test data of the first generation 4680 battery cell is far from Battery Day's expectations in terms of capacity, fast charging speed, energy density and production efficiency, chemical system and production. The progress of battery development and landing is really lower than expected, but the IRA makes Tesla unable to turn back on this road.

 

I understand that 4680 can only crawl slowly in the United States in 2 years, and can only go to Europe after 2025, and it is really difficult to say if it compares with China's battery cell companies in China.

 

Figure 6.Battery parameters of Tesla 4680

 

Summary: Tesla is the strongest battering ram for electric vehicles in the world, thanks in large part to Elon Musk who has been fighting chicken blood. After there are no new cars and no changes in 2022, I feel that the entire industry has begun to fall into a state of confusion, unable to bring up the rhythm of consumers buying.